UEFA Nations League: What’s at stake, 2026 World Cup qualifying impact

The new-look UEFA Nations League (UNL) group stage is coming to a close, with much more at stake than you might think. In fact, you might say you need a degree in football administration to fully understand the machinations.

For the original editions, the Nations League was mostly about qualifying for the finals, plus promotion and relegation between the four levels. But the 2024-25 format sees more teams through to the knockout format, plus added promotion/relegation playoffs. And for the first time, the final positions will have some impact on the qualifying draw for the next FIFA World Cup.

With two rounds of games to be played, we look at who’s in contention and what it all means in the race to reach United States, Mexico and Canada in the summer of 2026.

Stick with us …

How does the UEFA Nations League work?

There are four “divisions”: League A, B, C (with four groups of four nations) and D (with two groups of three). League A is the strongest and League D the weakest.

Qualifying for the quarterfinals and finals

In League A, the top two teams in each of the four groups will go through to two-legged quarterfinals, to be played in March. The winners of these ties will take part in the finals, with one-legged semifinals and a final in June.

Promotion and relegation

The countries who win League B and C are automatically promoted to League A and B, respectively. Those who finish bottom of League A and B are directly relegated to League B and C.

There is some good news for countries who are relegated from League A in this edition. Being in League B for the 2026 UNL, they will be in a better position to claim a playoff for a place for Euro 2028.

The winners of the two League D groups are promoted, while the two teams in League C who finish bottom with the worst record go down.

Playoffs

New for this edition is promotion/relegation playoffs, also be to be held in March. Teams who are third in League A will play two-legged ties against second-placed nations from League B. Likewise, third in League B will face second in League C. The winners will play in the higher league.

The two nations who are bottom in League C with the best record will face a promotion/relegation playoff against runners-up of League D.

Why does it matter for World Cup qualifying?

There’s a handful of reasons and, remarkably, it’s more complicated than the UEFA Nations League itself.

World Cup qualifying draw seeding

Teams will be drawn into 12 groups of four or five nations. Groups of five will begin qualifying in March. Groups of four won’t play any qualifiers until September. Why’s that? Because fixture slots need to be free for countries to play those UNL playoffs and knockout ties.

The eight teams in the UNL quarterfinals will all need free dates in March, with the four finalists also requiring June to be empty. As the World Cup qualifying draw is on Dec. 13, FIFA won’t know who needs both March and June free. FIFA has therefore given UEFA permission to put all eight UNL quarterfinalists (so far France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) in Pot 1 of the World Cup draw. If you finish in the top two of UNL League A, you’re seeded and could get a more favourable route to the next World Cup.

Pot 1 will have 12 nations, and is completed by the four countries with the best FIFA World Ranking who aren’t yet seeded. England, who are in League B for this edition of the UNL, and Belgium are guaranteed to take Pot 1 slots, ranked fourth and sixth in the world respectively. As it stands, Switzerland and Austria will take the other two

For all other pots, places are allocated purely by FIFA World Ranking, and results this week could influence that. For instance, Scotland are in Pot 3 but could lift themselves into Pot 2 with good results.

But wait … Depending on how many teams need to play promotion and relegation playoffs, FIFA may have to juggle the pots slightly. For instance, if there are too many teams in Pot 3 who need to have March free, then a swap with Pot 2 or 4 might be needed. That’s probably an issue for another day…

One more complication? As the UNL playoffs don’t take place until March, eight of the 12 World Cup groups won’t know their full lineup until then. Four of the groups with four teams will get “winners of playoff tie,” as they must be free for March and June. Four others get “losers of playoff tie.” Only four groups will be complete as of Dec. 13.

Playoff places for UNL group winners

The 12 winners of the UEFA World Cup qualifying groups will go direct to the World Cup. The 12 runners-up enter playoffs.

There are also four playoff slots for the best UNL group winners who do not finish in the top two of a World Cup group. What does that mean? Well, the UNL League A winners are very unlikely to need a World Cup playoff, which means winning a League B group will almost certainly give you a playoff, and being one of the best League C group winners gives a great chance.

There are 16 teams in the playoffs, creating four paths with one-legged semifinals and a final, to be played in March 2026.

UEFA and FIFA certainly know how to make this complicated.

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What’s confirmed?

Qualified for UNL finals: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain

Relegation from League A to League B: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Switzerland

League A/B playoffs: Greece, Hungary, Austria

Promotion from League B to League A: England, Norway

League B/C playoffs: Armenia, Republic of Ireland, Slovakia, Slovenia

Relegation from League B to League C: Finland, Kazakhstan, Montenegro

Promotion from League C to League B: North Macedonia, Sweden

Possible relegation from League C to D: Azerbaijan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg

League C/D playoffs: Malta

Promotion from League D to League C: Moldova

What’s at stake in the Nations League this week

This section will be updated through the final matches until the end of the group phase on Tuesday

LEAGUE A1

Portugal (13 points) are through to the quarterfinals.

Croatia (7) are almost there, and can confirm it with a win/draw at home to Portugal on Monday. However, if they lose the door is ajar for Scotland (4) to finish second.

If Scotland win in Poland, and Croatia lose to Portugal, it will come down to goal difference — which is guaranteed to be at least level with one-goal margins in both matches.
– It first would be decided on goals scored (Croatia lead this 7 to 5 as it stands); e.g. if Scotland win 2-1 and Croatia lose 1-0, records are identical at 7-8.
– If that’s level we go to higher number of away goals scored in all group matches; Croatia have 4 to Scotland’s 2 — but if Scotland win 2-1 we’re level again.
– Still level? Higher number of wins; both would be on 2
– And still level? Higher number of wins away from home — and Scotland would take it at this point with the victory in Poland.

If either match is decided by a margin or more than one goal, Scotland finish second.

Poland (4) cannot finish second as they lose to head-to-head with Croatia.

The fight to avoid automatic relegation will also come down to the final day for Poland and Scotland. As Poland won in Glasgow, Scotland must win in Warsaw to avoid automatic relegation.

So, the only way Scotland can avoid automatic relegation is to win, and that victory could actually send them to the finals seeded for the World Cup draw in Pot 1.

LEAGUE A2

Italy (13) and France (10) have qualified for the quarterfinals.

Israel (1) drew with France in Saint-Denis on Thursday to avoid automatic relegation. Israel must beat Belgium (4) by 3+ goals in Budapest (Hungary) on Sunday to avoid bottom spot. That means Belgium look likely to be in the relegation/promotion playoffs.

LEAGUE A3

This group is done and dusted with Germany (13) and Netherlands (8) having already booked a slot in the quarterfinals.

Hungary (5) will be in the relegation playoff.

Bosnia and Herzegovina (1) are relegated.

LEAGUE A4

Spain (13) have secured a place in the top two.

Denmark (7) must win/draw in Serbia (5) on Monday to take a spot in the quarterfinals. However, if Serbia claim victory in Leskovac they will be through to the last eight — and be seeded in the World Cup qualifying draw.

Switzerland (2) are relegated as they lose the head-to-head with Serbia.

LEAGUE B1

The group is completely up in the air, with the four nations separated by three points.

Czechia (8) sit top and have promotion in their own hands but sit just one point ahead of Georgia (7) and Albania (7). Ukraine (5) are bottom yet within touching distance of a promotion playoff.

Czechia are at home to Georgia on Tuesday and must win to secure automatic promotion. A draw is enough if Albania draw/lose. Czechia cannot finish top if they lose and would be dumped into a relegation playoff if Albania win; If Albania draw/lose, Czechia finish second.

If Georgia win in Olomouc they will definitely be promoted automatically if Albania draw/lose. If both Georgia and Albania win, first place would be decided on goal difference; Georgia are three goals better off, so Albania would need a huge win over Ukraine to finish top. If Georgia draw they can only finish second if Albania-Ukraine is a draw. If Georgia lose the best they can hope for is the relegation playoff.

Albania would definitely finish top with a win against Ukraine in Tirana if Czechia-Georgia is a draw. A draw for Albania would give them second if Georgia lose. If Albania lose, the best they can hope for is a relegation playoff, and their goal difference would likely mean they finish bottom.

Ukraine, who cannot be promoted automatically, have to win to avoid automatic relegation. If they do get a victory, they would climb to second, and get a promotion playoff, if Georgia fail to beat Czechia.

LEAGUE B2

England (15) topped the group on head-to-head above Greece (15), who face a playoff.

Republic of Ireland (6) will take on a League C team in a playoff.

Finland (0) are relegated.

LEAGUE B3

Norway (13) took automatic promotion on the final day with a 5-0 win over Kazakhstan, as Austria (11) drew at home with Slovenia (8). If Austria had won they would have been promoted. It also means Norway are effectively guaranteed a World Cup playoff.

So Norway are promoted, and Austria and Slovenia face promotion/relegation playoffs.

Kazakhstan (1) are relegated.

LEAGUE B4

Turkey (11) must win away to Montenegro (0) to secure promotion, and a World Cup playoff. However, a draw may be enough as Wales (9) would need to beat Iceland (7) in Cardiff by at least three goals to level the goal difference with Turkey.

If Wales do win by a three-goal margin and Turkey draw, goal difference would be level.
– It first would be decided on goals scored (Turkey lead this 8 to 5 as it stands); e.g. if Wales win 3-0 and Turkey draw 0-0, records are identical at 8-3.
– If that’s level we go to higher number of away goals scored in all group matches; Turkey and Wales both have 4, so a 0-0 for Turkey on Tuesday would keep it level. A scoring draw for Turkey would take it at this point.
– Still level after a 0-0? Higher number of wins; both would be on 3.
– And still level? Higher number of wins away from home — both would be on 1.
– Then it’s decided on lower disciplinary points in all group matches

If Wales win by 4+ goals and Turkey have a draw of any score, or lose, Wales win the group.
If Wales win by one or two goals and Turkey draw, Turkey win the group.
Turkey are sure to win the group if Wales draw/lose.

Iceland have plenty to play for too. They know that a win in Cardiff puts them into second and in a promotion playoff, and Wales into the relegation playoff.

Montenegro are relegated.

LEAGUE C1

Sweden (13) have been promoted and Slovakia (10) are in the promotion playoffs.

Estonia (4) will remain in League C.

Azerbaijan (1) face being automatically relegated to League D unless they beat Sweden.

LEAGUE C2

Romania (12) have one of the best records in League C, meaning they have an excellent chance of a World Cup playoff through the UNL — if they can hold on to top spot. However, their match against Kosovo (9) on Friday was abandoned when 0-0 in stoppage time due to chanting by Romania supporters, and UEFA will have to make a decision on the result of that game. Romania only needed a point to finish top and it’s not possible to know how the group will play out until UEFA makes a decision.

If the result of that fixture is still pending, Romania will need a win at home to Cyprus on Monday to take top spot.

Cyprus (6) have finished third and will stay in Group C, while Lithuania (0) must win in Kosovo to have any chance of avoiding automatic relegation.

LEAGUE C3

Northern Ireland (10) are in command of the group and will be promoted with a win/draw in Luxembourg on Monday. Bulgaria (8) must win at home to Belarus and hope Northern Ireland lose.

Belarus (6) cannot be relegated and can still gatecrash second by beating Bulgaria in Sofia.

Luxembourg (2) will finish bottom and must wait to see if they go straight down or face a playoff.

LEAGUE C4

North Macedonia (16) won the group with a game to spare and are in an excellent position to get a World Cup playoff, should they require it.

Armenia (7) climbed into second on the final day, earning a promotion playoff, with a 2-1 win in Latvia (4), who finished bottom. Latvia’s record should easily be good enough for a relegation playoff, rather than the automatic drop.

Faroe Islands (6) stay in League C, with their loss in North Macedonia seeing them be overtaken by Armenia

LEAGUE D1

Gibraltar (6) looked set to be promoted on Friday until a stoppage-time equaliser for San Marino (4).

So it goes down to the final game on Monday, when Liechtenstein (2) host San Marino.

If San Marino win, they are promoted and Gibraltar will face a playoff to move into League C.

If the game is a draw, Gibraltar are promoted and San Marino go into a playoff.

If Liechtenstein win, they are into the promotion playoff, Gibraltar are promoted and San Marino finish bottom.

LEAGUE D2

Moldova (9) have been promoted.

Malta (6) are in the promotion playoffs.

Andorra (0) finish bottom.