CFP Anger Index: The Massive 12 is perhaps shut out? Clemson is again within the combine?

What is the worth of a win?

This is not a rhetorical query. It is one thing the committee ought to be asking on a weekly foundation. We have a tendency to debate win-loss information in concrete phrases, then debate résumés in subjective ones, and that is the place followers, pundits and, particularly, the committee run into bother.

For instance, when a reporter requested Curt Cignetti if his Indiana Hoosiers nonetheless belonged within the playoff after a blowout loss to Ohio State, he responded with a mixture of befuddlement and indignation. How may a staff with a 10-1 report within the Massive Ten not be within the playoff?

To which any critic would possibly rightfully argue that Indiana’s one loss — by 23 to the one SP+ top-30 staff on their schedule — mentioned extra concerning the Hoosiers than the ten wins did.

Then again, there’s Massive 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, who this week instructed it could be an outrage if a Group of 5 champion eclipsed his convention for the ultimate playoff bye (which could truly be the least of his issues). He rattled off his justifiable share of information factors — energy of schedule, margin of victory, superior metrics — that make a clear-cut case for the Massive 12. The one downside? The Massive 12 champ might need as many as two extra losses than the Group of 5’s consultant.

Or, extra succinctly: The Massive Ten thinks its groups are greatest, as a result of they’ve misplaced fewer video games, whereas the SEC thinks its groups are greatest, as a result of they’ve performed a harder schedule.

So, which is it?

Let’s apply some math.

If we use the Soccer Energy Index’s pregame win expectation, we are able to get an approximate “diploma of issue” on every win.

Indiana, to Cignetti’s level, won’t have crushed nice groups, however successful continues to be exhausting. The chances, by the FPI, of successful all 10 of the Hoosiers’ victories come out to about 12%.

Examine that with Texas. The Longhorns have had a very smooth schedule, too, and like Indiana, they have been overmatched of their one severe check (in opposition to Georgia). Utilizing those self same FPI odds, the probabilities Texas would’ve gained the ten video games it has are literally fairly good — 42.4%, or rather less than a coin flip.

So by that logic, Indiana’s 10-1 report is way extra spectacular than Texas’ 10-1 report.

In fact, these pregame win projections additionally account for an necessary variable: staff high quality. Indiana’s odds have been decrease as a result of the FPI innately understands that Texas is a greater staff, when it comes to expertise, than Indiana.

So what if we simply go by energy of schedule?

That is difficult, too. Indiana’s schedule energy coming into final week stood at an embarrassing 106th nationally. Then the Hoosiers performed Ohio State, and its energy of schedule jumped to No. 51. So did the Hoosiers’ report get any extra spectacular in consequence? In fact not! They gained their 10 video games in opposition to the 106th-best schedule and misplaced a recreation in opposition to, successfully, the No. 1 hardest schedule of Week 13 (although actually Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama would possibly quibble with that evaluation).

That is the place ESPN’s strength-of-record metric is useful. It accounts for each opponent energy and the precise end result. It suggests Texas (at No. 5) is forward of Indiana (at No. 7). However what does that truly imply? The reply isn’t a lot. If we have a look at the uncooked numbers on energy of report, Texas’ rating is just about 3% higher than Indiana’s. The distinction is negligible — and that is earlier than we keep in mind that opponent high quality is each subjective and an impartial variable. In different phrases, Texas would not management how good its opponents are. Is it the Longhorns’ fault Michigan, final season’s nationwide champion, is not excellent in 2024? Is it Texas’ fault that, in a convention with a dozen stable groups, the SEC workplace handed out a schedule that featured solely two genuinely good opponents? Texas is similar staff no matter who it performs. We would simply have a greater gauge of how good that staff is that if it had performed just a few extra high quality opponents. Energy of schedule is a measure of certainty not high quality.

Or, maybe a greater instance: SMU has wins in opposition to Louisville and Pitt and an in depth loss to BYU. Three weeks in the past, BYU and Pitt have been undefeated and Louisville was a top-25 staff. That is a robust résumé (not that the committee seen). However BYU has misplaced two straight, Pitt has dropped three in a row and Louisville delivered some of the inexplicably disastrous losses in latest faculty soccer historical past in opposition to Stanford. All of a sudden SMU — via completely no fault of its personal — has a a lot much less spectacular résumé, lengthy after the video games in query have been truly performed.

Let’s get again to our central query then: What’s a win price?

In practically each different sport the reply is easy. A win is price a win, or no less than a non-loss. However in faculty soccer, it is all debatable, which is why now we have a committee.

The issue, in fact, is the committee debates are secret and its explanations are sometimes paradoxical. Rankings usually appear much less a couple of real appreciation for what a staff has achieved than a speculative assumption about what it would do in a hypothetical future or alternate timeline, and this season, greater than any in latest reminiscence, that appears a idiot’s errand.

AP ballot:
No. 5 misplaced to NIU
6 has a number of losses to 3-loss groups
7 misplaced to Ark
8 misplaced to GT
13 misplaced to Vandy & Okla
14 misplaced to TxTech & Cincy
15 misplaced to UF & UK
17 misplaced to TxTech & Kansas
18 misplaced to Okla
19 misplaced to Kansas
20 misplaced to Auburn
21 misplaced to Cuse
22 misplaced to Minn
23 misplaced…

— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 25, 2024

So right here we’re. After a weekend of chaos round faculty soccer — significantly within the SEC — the committee is throwing concepts in opposition to the wall and easily reporting again what caught.

Which brings us to this week’s Anger Index.

1. The Massive 12

Think about the next state of affairs: Boise State and Tulane each win out, incomes convention championships.

The Massive 12’s champion, nonetheless, is three-loss Kansas State, three-loss Colorado and even two-loss Iowa State. All of them are at present ranked behind each Tulane (the presumed AAC champ) and Boise State (the presumed Mountain West champ), which may lead us to this eventuality: Two Group of 5 champs get in, and the Massive 12 is shut out fully.

This might be a real disaster for the convention, but it surely’s not a significant leap to ascertain precisely that occuring.

However would it not be truthful?

Yormark actually would not assume so.

“Primarily based on the place we sit at the moment, I see no rationale for the Massive 12’s champion not getting a first-round bye,” Yormark instructed Yahoo Sports activities. “From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, all 4 of our colleges on the high of the standings are ranked forward of Boise State.”

Nicely, certain, however the committee is not rating energy of schedule, and proper now, everybody however Arizona State sits behind a number of Group of 5 groups.

The issue is the committee appears extremely involved with the standard of losses, and in that respect, Boise State (one loss to Oregon) and Tulane (losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma) have much more explainable blemishes than Iowa State (losses to Kansas and Texas Tech), Colorado (losses to Nebraska, Kansas and Kansas State) and even Arizona State (losses to Cincinnati and Texas Tech). The nice irony is Kansas State has a fairly clear-cut case to be forward of Tulane — a 34-27 head-to-head win — however the Wildcats’ loss to Houston seems to be a lot worse than, sarcastically, Tulane’s loss to … Kansas State.

For extra context on the committee’s willingness to have interaction on this round logic, return to 2014 when the Massive 12 was additionally disregarded, regardless of Baylor and TCU knocking on the door.

Then again, seeing Coach Prime disregarded in favor of a staff from the American would possibly create sufficient sizzling takes to energy all the vacation lights in America.

2. Each staff with playoff hopes not named Clemson (9-2, No. 12)

Someway the Tigers, left for lifeless after a 33-21 loss to Louisville lower than a month in the past, at the moment are our first staff out.

Why is that precisely?

Clemson might need the only thinnest résumé of any staff within the high 25 — and worse than a handful of unranked groups, too — while you dig into the numbers.

Clemson’s greatest win by SP+ got here in opposition to Virginia Tech, which is ranked No. 31. The Hokies, 5-6 and on the verge of lacking a bowl after a loss to Virginia in Week 14, are hardly an indicator that Clemson is able to greatness.

Clemson’s next-best win got here in opposition to Pitt by 4 factors in a recreation marred by controversial officiating. That is the identical Pitt at present embroiled in a four-game shedding streak. Pitt is the one Energy 4 staff with a successful report to lose to the Tigers.

The 2 groups with a pulse which have performed Clemson each gained handily — Georgia by 31 within the opener and Louisville by 12 on Nov. 2 in Loss of life Valley.

So, what precisely is the rationale for rating Clemson forward of, say, Arizona State (three wins higher than Virginia Tech), BYU (two), Kansas State (three), Alabama (4), Ole Miss (three) or South Carolina (three)? Iowa State, Arizona State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, BYU and Alabama all have higher strength-of-record metrics than the Tigers.

The Gamecocks will no less than get an opportunity to show the purpose on the sector Saturday within the Palmetto Bowl, and given the place the committee has issues now, it is completely doable that recreation is a de facto play-in for the playoff.

Whether or not Clemson belongs in that advantageous place, nonetheless, appears a doubtful proposition.

In fact, if that is all setting the stage for the committee to deviously bounce Alabama over an ACC staff within the last ballot, then we applaud their willingness to play the lengthy recreation.

Let’s do a fast blind comparability right here.

Workforce A: 9-2, 1-1 vs. FPI high 40, losses to groups with a mixed report of 18-4 by a mixed 8 factors

Workforce B: 9-2, 0-2 vs. FPI high 40, losses to groups with a mixed report of 14-8 by a mixed 22 factors

Wouldn’t it assist right here if we famous each of those groups are from the Group of 5, however Workforce A has two wins vs. Energy 4 opponents and Workforce B has none?

Fairly simple choose, proper? Workforce A has a transparent edge. Solely Workforce A is UNLV, which ranks No. 22 and could be at a drawback for a playoff bid, even when it wins out.

Workforce B is Tulane, which checks in at No. 17.

Heck, UNLV would possibly even have one of the best case of anybody for leaping the Massive 12 by advantage of wins over Kansas and Houston — two groups which have crushed BYU, Colorado, Kansas State and Iowa State.

There are 10 groups from Energy 4 conferences with 8-3 information after Week 13. Eight of them are ranked. The 2 that are not are each within the ACC, exterior the AP Prime 25 and with ample motive to be outraged.

Workforce A: No. 26 energy of report, greatest wins vs SP+ Nos. 36 and 52, losses to SP+ Nos. 16, 41 and 55 by a complete of 37 factors

Workforce B: No. 31 energy or report, greatest wins vs SP+ Nos. 31 and 44, losses to SP+ Nos. 8, 13 and 61 by a complete of 33 factors

Fairly darned shut, proper? Workforce B, nonetheless, has the higher wins and the higher losses, so the one factor supporting Workforce A appears to be a reasonably higher center of the résumé.

So, who’re they?

Workforce B is Duke. Workforce A is Colorado.

Syracuse is admittedly a harder promote due to an unpleasant loss to Stanford, however the Orange have wins over No. 22 UNLV and a Georgia Tech staff that knocked off Miami.

And but, neither Duke nor Syracuse is ranked.

Does it actually matter? Neither would sniff the playoff anyway.

And but, as Syracuse QB Kyle McCord instructed ESPN, the popularity is significant to a younger program with a first-year coach hoping to ascertain an identification — a narrative that is true of Duke, too.

“You wish to get that recognition,” McCord mentioned. “That is one among our objectives is to be ranked by the CFP committee.”

And it issues, too, for the opposite groups making a case for the playoff. Miami faces Syracuse this week. It has already defeated Duke. SMU, nonetheless criminally underappreciated by the committee, has a win over Duke, too. When “ranked wins” are a metric — fraught because it is perhaps — it issues.

What may Notre Dame probably need to quibble with? In any case, No. 5 is nearly as good because it will get for the Combating Irish, who can not, by rule, earn a first-round bye.

However this is the issue: They’re outflanked by three Massive Ten groups and narrowly forward of maybe essentially the most intimidating staff within the nation in Georgia. And since the primary 4 spots need to go to convention champions, we could possibly be a last rating that appears one thing like this: Oregon, Georgia, ACC champion and Massive 12 or Group of 5 champion get the byes, with Ohio State, Texas and Penn State subsequent within the pecking order.

That leaves Notre Dame poised precariously getting ready to touchdown a house recreation for the playoff.

The chances are nonetheless lengthy that the Irish could be pushed past the highest eight, however stranger issues have occurred. And it actually should not be a subject for debate. Notre Dame has six wins vs. opponents which might be at present 7-4 or higher — essentially the most of any staff within the nation — and is driving a nine-game successful streak wherein it outscored the opposition by a median of 33 factors.

In fact, there’s nonetheless that messy incident in Week 2 when the Irish fell to Northern Illinois. If these two performed 100 extra occasions, it could shock nobody if Notre Dame gained 99 of them. However there is no ignoring what occurred, and for nearly as good because the Irish look at the moment, in addition they have the worst lack of any playoff contender by a rustic mile.

It certain could be a disgrace if that loss stored them from internet hosting a recreation in northern Indiana in mid-December.

Additionally indignant: Iowa State, Kansas State, Curt Cignetti, Greg Sankey, anybody going to the grocery retailer on Wednesday.