Why Atlético can beat Barcelona, Actual Madrid to LaLiga title this season

I am unable to imagine I am about to do that, particularly two full months earlier than the precise date of Feb. 2, however I am embarking alone private Groundhog Day and arguing, another time, utterly towards my higher judgement, that Atlético Madrid have a evident alternative to develop into LaLiga champions in Might.

Groundhog Day is that curious North American custom whereby if the world’s most well-known marmot, Punxsutawney Phil, emerges from its lair on the second day of February and sees its personal shadow then winter goes to stretch on, but when it does not, then we’ll have an early balmy spring.

However the 1993 film of the identical identify, starring the mighty Invoice Murray, had his boastful weatherman lead character experiencing the identical day again and again till he realized humility, and located love, so the expression “Groundhog Day” is now equally used to specific that feeling of being trapped in a repetitive cycle.

That is exactly the place my analytical perspicacity and my deeply cynical pessimism conflict head on: no matter my perception that Atléti supervisor Diego “Cholo” Simeone possesses so many tics, flaws and unwelcome tinkering instincts that Los Colchoneros might want to triumph regardless of, quite than due to him, I am unable to resist making the case that they could, simply may, have their finest alternative since changing into Spanish champions in 2021.

Atléti have one of the best squad in Spain, arguably in Europe, and that their two principal rivals, Real Madrid and Barcelona are weak, is exactly what I assumed initially of this season however backed away from writing due to my Simeone-phobia.

Out of consideration for many who’ve adopted my sturdy views on the 54-year-old who simply coached his 701st Atlético match, and who’s gained extra trophies than any coach within the membership’s storied historical past, I will be concise about my criticisms of him.

I feel he has relaxed, to not say utterly undermined, his private requirements from the hungry “tackle the world” coach he as soon as was. I feel they particularly dropped after he signed his final contract extension in November 2023. I feel that Simeone overly depends on the truth that his fixed functionality to maintain Atléti within the Champions League earns the membership massive income and makes him untouchable. I feel that he commonly confuses and under-inspires his gamers.

I feel that his coaching classes do not right ongoing flaws. I feel that he has been persistently bailed out by his director of soccer, Andrea Berta, signing glorious gamers who, no matter whether or not their coach is working to the identical excessive requirements as in his first 10 years in cost, imply that Atléti can be there or thereabouts.

Do not take my phrase for Simeone’s failings — use his personal phrases as proof. On one of many handful of events final season, together with his staff having performed badly and misplaced (often away from house), the Argentine mentioned: “It is the coach’s fault, I will should work more durable and higher.” After which little or nothing modified, however the media had their mea culpa and left him alone.

Throughout the summer season of 2023 he mentioned: “Midway by means of final season elements of the staff had been off the tempo, there was no identification, no readability, not sufficient dedication. It felt like we had been on the best way to the top of an period. I am not daft, I may see, such as you all may, that we had been taking part in badly, that there was insecurity — it was the worst a part of my 11 years in cost.”

Then, final season, not solely had been Simeone’s Atléti the one staff, anyplace in Europe, to defeat Madrid, however they did it twice (in LaLiga and the Copa del Rey). But, they nonetheless managed to win nothing and to complete a dismal 19 factors behind Carlo Ancelotti’s Spanish champions. The definition of underachievement.

This time period, throughout an August-October spell when Atléti gained solely twice in eight matches, whereas being completely humiliated on a 7-1 mixture by Benfica in Lisbon and Lille in Madrid, I have to admit that I assumed I might been smart to not be seduced by the standard of squad-building which Berta achieved final summer season.

Throughout these lengthy, embarrassing weeks Simeone’s aspect usually regarded devoid of creativity, communication, dedication, consistency and positively devoid of title choices.

After one of many disappointing outcomes, dropping two factors at Real Sociedad regardless of having led for totally 83 minutes, phrase reached my ear that Simeone had deliberate a selected set of ways all week previous to the match, skilled his gamers to these particular orders after which, on the morning of the match, woken up with a foul feeling, not more than a whim, ripped the plans up and altered course for no explicit purpose, leaving his long-term gamers shrugging and saying “typical Cholo,” however leaving the confused and irritated newbies considering: “What the heck have I signed up for?”

Sadly, such a behaviour is not only a common week-by-week chance with this uncommon man: he has too usually been stricken by such a unhelpful compulsion throughout matches — all to the detriment of his staff’s identification, cohesion, unity and reliability.

So, I admit, you would be inside your rights to ask why I too am altering tack and declaring that whereas I am nonetheless a confirmed Simeone-cynic, I imagine Atléti have earned the appropriate to be talked about as title contenders. Mainly, it is a cussed idiot who, on receipt of latest info, refuses to adapt and replace his concepts. Due to this fact: right here goes.

The primary level is that that is shaping as much as be a title chase throughout which the 2 main candidates are weak. Barcelona stay underneath development and appear unable to win with out Lamine Yamal, plus their captain and goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen will not play once more this season.

Madrid, having misplaced Toni Kroos to retirement and seen Nacho and Joselu depart, can be with out Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão for a 12 months or so, and whereas their damage listing stubbornly refuses to decrease, the conundrum about the way to restore Kylian Mbappé’s kind stays.

Either side have performed extraordinarily oddly and unimpressively of late — in the meantime Atléti are clicking. They are a pleasure to observe once more.

Even with out the immensely essential Robin Le Normand, recruited from Actual Sociedad, Simeone’s aspect have by far one of the best defensive file in LaLiga. Key striker Alexander Sørloth has six objectives and two assists — a objective contribution each 86 minutes. He and Simeone have thrashed out a working relationship from bumpy beginnings.

World Cup-winning Julián Álvarez — signed for enormous cash from Manchester City and at present being badly missed by England’s champions — is trailing Sørloth in LaLiga however, general, has 10 objectives and two assists. Better of all, he is performing with essentially the most assurance and self-confidence of his total profession.

Steadily a finest XI is rising, or near it. There’s two good gamers for each place (besides maybe if Jan Oblak had been to be out long run), Simeone is behaving extra persistently, chopping and altering the formation throughout matches a lot much less usually and, bonus ball, there’s the thrilling emergence of his son, Giuliano.

Simeone’s youngest son has all of the aggressive aggression of his sensible dad, thrice the tempo and a scintillating reference to the rabid followers at Atléti’s Metropolitano stadium who crave pleasure, verve, thrills and to see somebody one the pitch who represents their values. That is Giuliano alright.

Twenty-two in a few weeks, he is again after seasons on mortgage at Zaragoza and Alaves, and he is more and more a first-choice participant — not a touch of nepotism in sight from a man who’s a transformative affect on the vitality, verticality, creativity and enjoyable with which Atléti play.

Earlier than the LaLiga’s midweek fixtures, Los Colchoneros are two factors off the highest of the desk and, within the Champions League, one level off the all-important high eight. Better of all, no less than for the second till the silverware is being doled out in six months’ time, Simeone’s staff has out of the blue develop into enormous enjoyable to observe once more.

Personally, I am nonetheless deeply sceptical about this advanced however compelling Argentine coach. But there’s an opportunity, even when it is a small one, that this may be the season that the Barça-Madrid hegemony could be threatened — and even damaged.

Let’s verify again in on Feb. 2 and see whether or not Groundhog Day goes to forecast a sunny, early spring for Atléti … or the identical previous sinking feeling of a protracted, darkish winter for the one that you love columnist as a result of Simeone’s screwed all of it up once more.